By EnerSynk Group · · 9 min read
Three years after nearly 200 countries agreed in Dubai to 'transition away from fossil fuels', the world still has no agreed plan for how to do it. At COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, that question is back at the centre of the climate talks — and, as the first week closes, it is the issue where positions are most entrenched. Here is what is on the table and why it matters for every government, investor and energy developer.
What is COP31 and why is it different?
COP31 is the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is taking place in Antalya on Türkiye's Mediterranean coast from 9 to 20 November 2026, with more than 90,000 participants expected. In an unusual arrangement, Türkiye holds the COP presidency and hosts the summit, while Australia serves as 'president of negotiations', steering the formal talks.
The two have said they intend to produce a 'cover text' — an overarching political document summarising key outcomes and issues outside the formal agenda. That could include recognition that global warming is set to overshoot 1.5°C, making the fossil fuel question even more urgent.
From Dubai to Belém: how we got here
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries agreed for the first time to 'transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems'. It was historic language, but it came with no timeline, no targets and no mechanism.
At COP30 in Belém in 2025, around 80 countries pushed for a roadmap to be included in the formal outcome. They did not succeed. Instead, Brazil's presidency promised a voluntary, informal roadmap outside the official negotiations. Colombia and the Netherlands then hosted the first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April 2026, attended by 57 countries.
Brazil's fossil fuel roadmap: what it says
On 3 November 2026 — just days before COP31 opened — Brazil's presidency released its roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels. It outlines possible pathways for reducing dependence on oil, gas and coal and accelerating the shift to clean energy. Crucially, it acknowledges that countries start from very different positions, and it is not binding.
Its release puts pressure on COP31 to turn ideas into action: will countries endorse it, build on it, or quietly set it aside?
Who supports and who resists
As the first week of talks closed on 13 November, observers reported that big fossil fuel producers and consumers were resisting any deal with firm new targets or an explicit shift away from oil, gas and coal.
- Pushing for ambition: a coalition including the EU, many Latin American nations, small island states and climate-vulnerable countries.
- Resisting constraints: major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have traditionally opposed language limiting fossil fuels.
- Cautious on development grounds: large developing economies, including India, which argue measures could limit their energy choices and growth.
- Absent: the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, has skipped the talks for the second year in a row.
Why this matters: the 1.5°C overshoot
A UN report released in October 2026 found the world is on course to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit set in the Paris Agreement. The UN Secretary-General has called for a 'just transition away from fossil fuels' as part of a new Climate Justice Compact, urging that any overshoot be kept as small and short as possible. Fossil fuels remain the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, so without a credible plan to phase them down, every other climate goal becomes harder.
2026 has already brought extreme heatwaves across Western Europe and a powerful El Niño threatening more extreme weather — a reminder that the costs of delay are no longer hypothetical.
What a just transition really means
Moving away from fossil fuels affects millions of workers and communities that depend on coal, oil and gas. At COP30, countries created a Just Transition Mechanism to protect labour and human rights, gender equality and Indigenous communities. At COP31, negotiators must decide its structure — including whether it will deliver real finance and technology, or mainly act as a forum for dialogue. Broad support has emerged for continuing the Just Transition Work Programme beyond 2026.
What it means for energy investment
Diplomatic language moves slowly; capital moves faster. Whatever wording survives in Antalya, the direction of travel is clear. Solar, wind and battery storage are now the cheapest new power in most markets, and governments, development banks and private investors are increasingly looking for bankable, large-scale clean energy projects — especially in emerging markets where demand is growing fastest.
For countries in Africa, South Asia and Latin America, a fossil fuel transition is also an opportunity: energy security, local jobs and lower import bills.
EnerSynk's view
EnerSynk exists to close the gap between climate commitments and infrastructure on the ground. Our platform connects governments, sovereign and institutional capital, technology providers and manufacturers to deliver utility-scale renewable energy, water and air projects — the practical side of the transition that COP negotiators are debating. A roadmap is only as good as the projects that follow it.
Frequently asked questions
Where and when is COP31?
COP31 takes place in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November 2026. Türkiye holds the presidency and Australia leads the negotiations.
What is the fossil fuel transition roadmap?
It is a plan for how countries move away from oil, gas and coal, building on the COP28 agreement in Dubai. Brazil released a voluntary, non-binding version on 3 November 2026.
Is the US attending COP31?
No. The United States has skipped the UN climate talks for the second year in a row.
Sources
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